Brief description of the author’s climatological studies and attempts of their layout. Brief analysis of the current climat situation.
1. Brief description of the author’s climatological studies and attempts of their layout.
I’ve been involved in climatology or, rather in paleoclimatology, when studying history of medieval trnsportation grid in the territory of Ukraine. As a result, using traditional and author’s techniques of studies of the history of old communications routes and climate of Ukraine, I managed to find that changes of routs of old roads were closely linked to the global climate changes, similar to the one that started nowadays.
In particular, it came clear that in the Right-bank Ukraine (as well as in the other territories of mild latitudes) due to longlasting and stable rise of precipitations periodically (once approximately in 2.4 thousand years) appeared and, gradually druing, disappeared temporary seas (I called them "Reservoirs of Great Waters") vast areas of swampy land. Such territories first were detoured and then, as they were drying, crossed routes of old roads. I would call among such owerwetted areas in Ukraine the following:
- watershed plateau at the river heads of Sluch, Southern Bug, Zbruch and Smotrych;
- arch-like reservoir along the Irdyn and Tyasmyn flood-lands at the Dniper right bank;
- swampy lands at South-West of Vinnytsia - interfluves of the Vinnychka, Desna, Sob rivers;
- highland swampy valleys in the Carpats – at the river head of Dnister, in the vicinities of Ivano-Frankivsk, Kalush, Stryi and other.
As the result of further studies of regularities of climat changes both in the territiry of modern Ukraine and worldwide during the late last interglacial epoch, i.e. during the last 6 thousand years, I was lucky to construct the following concept.
Decisive factor of global climate formation is a measure of warming-up of the World Ocean and determination by it of the level of sesonal precipitation.
In its turn, warming-up of the Ocean depends on the level of the solar activity, which, as it appeared, is periodically changed, moreover the most powerful harmonic of such changes has the period of 2,400 years.
It should be noted that the value of this period – 2,400 years – I got by myself in 2000, at the very beginning of my paleoclimatic studies, when I was not yet acquainted with even a single work on the history of climate. Later, during my lecture about the history of old roads, in the Institute of Archaeology of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences (UNAS), I learned from printed sources, kindly presented to me by the audience, that this very period was stated in the course of the radio-isotopic analysis of sediments in the annual rings of fossil wood and in the ice of polar glaciers. Starting my acquaintance with the results of modern paleoclimatologists, I assured that my “solar-oceanic” concept essentially differs from other techniques of studies of the global climat changes. Then I contacted the leader of the most authoritative in paleoclimatology scientific institution in the former USSR - Director of the Plasma Physics, Nuclear Physics and astrophysics of the O.F. Ioffe Physical-technical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (St. Petersburgh), doctor of phisical-mathematical sciences V.A. Dergachev. He highly assessed my results, and then even proposed to organize Scientific Conference on paleoclimatology in Vinnytsia (see attached his letter to the Head of the City). Unfortunately, our initiative has never been supported.
Then in search for the necessary material support I addressed regional authorities. But the appropriate written request of that time (2002) Head of regional Administration V.F. Kotsemir, to the organizations related to climat problems were not responded.
Then, while going on with my studies, simultaneously I started big author’s Internet site to publish my results. Long and rather painstaking work on structuring and stockpiling of information in the site reached its final stage, at which a need to engage qualified software specialists, translators and other specialists for which I do not have enough money. Fundraising now is my main organization task.
2. Brief analysis of the current climat situation.
Developments of the last years proved my hypothesis as for the decisive role of the growth of moisturing of global climate in formation of crisis state in the environment. Numerous powerful floods destroy crops, cause flooding of inhabited areas and, strange as it may seem, decrease resources of drinkable water (what can be explained by the pollution of surces of clean water with flood waters). Attack of the earth moisture is more acute revealed in the Southern hemisphere, though in Euroasia it is also very devastating. All that leads to the growth of world prices at agrarian products and, consequently to energy carriers, first of all at crude oil.
It is interesting that the territory of Ukraine belongs to those where this moisture crisis is revealed in less acute form. It can be easily explained by the distribution of principal atmospheric circulations that carry oceanic moisture with them to continents. These circulations are
- meridional circulation that brings moisture from tropical zones of the Atlantic and the Indian oceans;
- latitudinal North Atlantic Circulation (NAC).
The collision zone of these two circulation passes over Ukraine, and it is accompanied by creation of zones of comparatively high atmospheric pressure which causes lower intesity of precipitations. In its turn, it leads to the phenomenon that the terriotory of Ukraine turns into the zone of the most optimal in our time conditions for agricultural production. Realisation of this fact promotes greater investments to the Ukrainian economy and, first of all to agriculture and supporting industries.
Note that 2,400 years ago, i.e. in the principal phase of the general 2,400-year cycle, Ukrainian territory was a granary of ancient Europe. This fact explains the known to historicians rise of Scythian state in 400-300 A.D., and growth in the number of valuable treasures on its territory (moreover, practically all the items of these treasures were produced in ancient countries, which imported Scythian granis).
. 04.04.2008. A.Sekretariov.
Appendix 1.
Order of Lenin holder O.F. Ioffe Physical-technical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences
Leningrad, 194021 Politechnical Str. Phone: 247-18-73. 247-23-75. 247-91-56
Telegraph address: Leningrad, K-21, FTI
112-17 / 71-5 ¹ 26.08.02
To mayor of the city of Vinnytsia
Dombrovskiy A.G.
Dear Alexandr Georgievich!
Last time attention of both science community and mass media is attracted by the vital for mankind problem of climate changes. Causes of warming are now discussed within the frameworks of the two concepts: impact of human activities on climate and natural warming of climate. According to the views of some scholars, global warming of the Earth climate is a consequence of natural phenomena, but not only the result of human activities. Unfortunately, our knowledge about development of natural processes are limited by short time span of observations and we have to use indirect data: change of tree rings width, ice layers in glaciers, water level in lakes and seas, etc.
Undoubtedly, the Sun causes impact on climate. But direct instrumental data about its variability are limited. Meanwhile, a number of indirect data brings out clearly that changes of solar activity has not only 11-year cycles, but more long ones – hundreds and thousands of years. The Sun causes noticeable effect on the Earth’s atmosphere and brings oscilations of moisture. As the result of strong moistenings, which periodically took place in the past, flooding of flood-lands occured, swamp formation and shift of native zones started, and these leaded to the migration of population to more fvourable regions.
It would be interesting to note that works of A. Sekretariov point out long-term variations of water balance. He convincing shows that changes of water regime caused old routes in Ukraine. Archaeological excavations also prove that in the Ukrainian steppes interruption of location of inhabitation took place. Ukrainian scholars stockpiled data about the regularity of natural processes changes in the past. It is of great interest to discuss at a conference with a number of specialists the problem of changes in connection with possible global climatic cataclysms.
Acting for Director of the Department of physics of plasma, nuclear physics and astrophysics
Of the O.F. Ioffe Physical-technical Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences
Doctor of physical-mathematical sciences V.A.Dergachev
translated by Victor Tarasjuk